Interest rates pose a challenge to consumers, but overall industry remains steady
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,140,659 units in September 2022, up 13% from a year ago and up 3% from August 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13.4 million, up 9% from September 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 987,378 units, up 8% from a year ago and up about 3% from August 2022.
"With increasing interest rates, affordability is being tested," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "We're seeing consumers faced with the reality that to afford the same vehicle at the same monthly payment as last year, they are forced to increase their down payment, which is creating new affordability challenges. We are paying close attention to how the industry will react to these concerns. Perhaps there will be more incentives, longer finance terms, or a combination of these."
"This month we're seeing Honda, Nissan and General Motors gaining traction from previous months' sales," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "GM has been able to capitalize on other OEMs' inability to deliver vehicles."
Additional September and Third Quarter Industry Insights (from TrueCar ):
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 27,305 | 26,031 | 28,360 | 4.9 % | 4.9 % | -3.7 % | 0.1 % |
Daimler | 23,990 | 18,419 | 27,470 | 30.2 % | 30.2 % | -12.7 % | -9.2 % |
Ford | 150,193 | 155,384 | 157,062 | -3.3 % | -3.3 % | -4.4 % | -0.5 % |
GM | 193,391 | 111,046 | 187,277 | 74.2 % | 74.2 % | 3.3 % | 7.4 % |
Honda | 81,035 | 95,716 | 71,461 | -15.3 % | -15.3 % | 13.4 % | 17.9 % |
Hyundai | 66,567 | 58,667 | 69,437 | 13.5 % | 13.5 % | -4.1 % | -0.3 % |
Kia | 63,752 | 52,906 | 66,089 | 20.5 % | 20.5 % | -3.5 % | 0.3 % |
Nissan | 52,068 | 51,182 | 50,151 | 1.7 % | 1.7 % | 3.8 % | 8.0 % |
Stellantis | 126,277 | 130,926 | 127,120 | -3.6 % | -3.6 % | -0.7 % | 3.3 % |
Subaru | 49,703 | 42,054 | 50,126 | 18.2 % | 18.2 % | -0.8 % | 3.1 % |
Tesla | 42,959 | 26,291 | 42,837 | 63.4 % | 63.4 % | 0.3 % | 4.3 % |
Toyota | 167,716 | 151,378 | 172,885 | 10.8 % | 10.8 % | -3.0 % | 0.9 % |
Volkswagen Group | 51,216 | 38,821 | 53,702 | 31.9 % | 31.9 % | -4.6 % | -0.8 % |
Industry | 1,140,659 | 1,007,229 | 1,151,339 | 13.2 % | 13.2 % | -0.9 % | 3.0 % |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 24,884 | 24,799 | 26,025 | 0.3 % | 0.3 % | -4.4 % | -0.6 % |
Daimler | 22,060 | 16,803 | 25,653 | 31.3 % | 31.3 % | -14.0 % | -10.6 % |
Ford | 107,036 | 120,881 | 117,631 | -11.5 % | -11.5 % | -9.0 % | -5.4 % |
GM | 161,052 | 100,341 | 154,859 | 60.5 % | 60.5 % | 4.0 % | 8.2 % |
Honda | 78,972 | 95,224 | 69,470 | -17.1 % | -17.1 % | 13.7 % | 18.2 % |
Hyundai | 64,998 | 57,907 | 68,676 | 12.2 % | 12.2 % | -5.4 % | -1.6 % |
Kia | 61,789 | 49,662 | 63,890 | 24.4 % | 24.4 % | -3.3 % | 0.6 % |
Nissan | 44,924 | 45,547 | 41,103 | -1.4 % | -1.4 % | 9.3 % | 13.7 % |
Stellantis | 97,951 | 106,818 | 101,663 | -8.3 % | -8.3 % | -3.7 % | 0.2 % |
Subaru | 48,702 | 41,205 | 48,837 | 18.2 % | 18.2 % | -0.3 % | 3.7 % |
Tesla | 36,881 | 26,291 | 35,893 | 40.3 % | 40.3 % | 2.8 % | 6.9 % |
Toyota | 152,926 | 141,844 | 155,038 | 7.8 % | 7.8 % | -1.4 % | 2.6 % |
Volkswagen Group | 46,513 | 38,176 | 49,171 | 21.8 % | 21.8 % | -5.4 % | -1.6 % |
Industry | 987,378 | 911,283 | 999,613 | 8.4 % | 8.4 % | -1.2 % | 2.7 % |
Fleet Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 2,421 | 1,232 | 2,335 | 96.5 % | 96.5 % | 3.7 % | 7.9 % |
Daimler | 1,930 | 1,616 | 1,817 | 19.4 % | 19.4 % | 6.2 % | 10.5 % |
Ford | 43,157 | 34,503 | 39,431 | 25.1 % | 25.1 % | 9.4 % | 13.8 % |
GM | 32,339 | 10,705 | 32,418 | 202.1 % | 202.1 % | -0.2 % | 3.7 % |
Honda | 2,063 | 492 | 1,991 | 319.1 % | 319.1 % | 3.6 % | 7.8 % |
Hyundai | 1,569 | 760 | 761 | 106.5 % | 106.5 % | 106.1 % | 114.4 % |
Kia | 1,963 | 3,244 | 2,199 | -39.5 % | -39.5 % | -10.7 % | -7.1 % |
Nissan | 7,144 | 5,635 | 9,048 | 26.8 % | 26.8 % | -21.0 % | -17.9 % |
Stellantis | 28,326 | 24,108 | 25,457 | 17.5 % | 17.5 % | 11.3 % | 15.7 % |
Subaru | 1,001 | 849 | 1,289 | 17.9 % | 17.9 % | -22.3 % | -19.2 % |
Tesla | 6,078 | - | 6,944 | -12.5 % | -9.0 % | ||
Toyota | 14,790 | 9,534 | 17,847 | 55.1 % | 55.1 % | -17.1 % | -13.8 % |
Volkswagen Group | 4,703 | 645 | 4,531 | 629.1 % | 629.1 % | 3.8 % | 7.9 % |
Industry | 150,348 | 95,748 | 148,793 | 57.0 % | 57.0 % | 1.0 % | 5.1 % |
Fleet Penetration | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 8.9 % | 4.7 % | 8.2 % | 87.3 % | 7.7 % |
Daimler | 8.0 % | 8.8 % | 6.6 % | -8.3 % | 21.6 % |
Ford | 28.7 % | 22.2 % | 25.1 % | 29.4 % | 14.5 % |
GM | 16.7 % | 9.6 % | 17.3 % | 73.5 % | -3.4 % |
Honda | 2.5 % | 0.5 % | 2.8 % | 395.0 % | -8.6 % |
Hyundai | 2.4 % | 1.3 % | 1.1 % | 82.0 % | 115.0 % |
Kia | 3.1 % | 6.1 % | 3.3 % | -49.8 % | -7.4 % |
Nissan | 13.7 % | 11.0 % | 18.0 % | 24.6 % | -23.9 % |
Stellantis | 22.4 % | 18.4 % | 20.0 % | 21.8 % | 12.0 % |
Subaru | 2.0 % | 2.0 % | 2.6 % | -0.2 % | -21.7 % |
Tesla | 14.1 % | 0.0 % | 16.2 % | -12.7 % | |
Toyota | 8.8 % | 6.3 % | 10.3 % | 40.0 % | -14.6 % |
Volkswagen Group | 9.2 % | 1.7 % | 8.4 % | 452.7 % | 8.8 % |
Industry | 13.2 % | 9.5 % | 12.9 % | 38.7 % | 2.0 % |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual |
BMW | 2.4 % | 2.6 % | 2.5 % |
Daimler | 2.1 % | 1.8 % | 2.4 % |
Ford | 13.2 % | 15.4 % | 13.6 % |
GM | 17.0 % | 11.0 % | 16.3 % |
Honda | 7.1 % | 9.5 % | 6.2 % |
Hyundai | 5.8 % | 5.8 % | 6.0 % |
Kia | 5.6 % | 5.3 % | 5.7 % |
Nissan | 4.6 % | 5.1 % | 4.4 % |
Stellantis | 11.1 % | 13.0 % | 11.0 % |
Subaru | 4.4 % | 4.2 % | 4.4 % |
Tesla | 3.8 % | 2.6 % | 3.7 % |
Toyota | 14.7 % | 15.0 % | 15.0 % |
Volkswagen Group | 4.5 % | 3.9 % | 4.7 % |
96.1 % | 95.2 % | 95.9 % |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual |
BMW | 2.5 % | 2.7 % | 2.6 % |
Daimler | 2.2 % | 1.8 % | 2.6 % |
Ford | 10.8 % | 13.3 % | 11.8 % |
GM | 16.3 % | 11.0 % | 15.5 % |
Honda | 8.0 % | 10.4 % | 6.9 % |
Hyundai | 6.6 % | 6.4 % | 6.9 % |
Kia | 6.3 % | 5.4 % | 6.4 % |
Nissan | 4.5 % | 5.0 % | 4.1 % |
Stellantis | 9.9 % | 11.7 % | 10.2 % |
Subaru | 4.9 % | 4.5 % | 4.9 % |
Tesla | 3.7 % | 2.9 % | 3.6 % |
Toyota | 15.5 % | 15.6 % | 15.5 % |
Volkswagen Group | 4.7 % | 4.2 % | 4.9 % |
96.1 % | 95.0 % | 95.8 % |
ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $69,596 | $62,593 | $66,227 | 11.2 % | 5.1 % |
Daimler | $70,723 | $68,949 | $67,009 | 2.6 % | 5.5 % |
Ford | $51,786 | $50,827 | $53,022 | 1.9 % | -2.3 % |
GM | $51,418 | $51,750 | $50,965 | -0.6 % | 0.9 % |
Honda | $38,246 | $34,966 | $38,695 | 9.4 % | -1.2 % |
Hyundai | $36,907 | $35,420 | $36,805 | 4.2 % | 0.3 % |
Kia | $34,880 | $31,816 | $34,521 | 9.6 % | 1.0 % |
Nissan | $35,975 | $33,942 | $36,950 | 6.0 % | -2.6 % |
Stellantis | $55,049 | $49,922 | $54,182 | 10.3 % | 1.6 % |
Subaru | $35,008 | $33,068 | $34,551 | 5.9 % | 1.3 % |
Toyota | $40,547 | $39,689 | $41,284 | 2.2 % | -1.8 % |
Volkswagen Group | $45,279 | $41,936 | $45,070 | 8.0 % | 0.5 % |
Industry | $44,942 | $42,500 | $44,977 | 5.7 % | -0.1 % |
$2,442 | -$35 |
Incentives | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $1,047 | $3,601 | $1,251 | -70.9 % | -16.3 % |
Daimler | $1,323 | $3,177 | $1,407 | -58.4 % | -6.0 % |
Ford | $984 | $2,598 | $1,008 | -62.1 % | -2.4 % |
GM | $1,267 | $2,650 | $1,468 | -52.2 % | -13.7 % |
Honda | $898 | $2,007 | $890 | -55.3 % | 0.8 % |
Hyundai | $431 | $1,381 | $409 | -68.8 % | 5.3 % |
Kia | $384 | $2,047 | $450 | -81.2 % | -14.6 % |
Nissan | $1,090 | $2,397 | $1,391 | -54.5 % | -21.6 % |
Stellantis | $2,821 | $3,186 | $2,403 | -11.5 % | 17.4 % |
Subaru | $453 | $1,199 | $492 | -62.2 % | -7.8 % |
Toyota | $672 | $1,794 | $819 | -62.6 % | -18.0 % |
Volkswagen Group | $1,185 | $2,547 | $1,249 | -53.5 % | -5.1 % |
Industry | $1,090 | $2,347 | $1,113 | -53.6 % | -2.1 % |
-$1,257 | -$23 |
Incentives as % of ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | 1.5 % | 5.8 % | 1.9 % | -73.8 % | -20.3 % |
Daimler | 1.9 % | 4.6 % | 2.1 % | -59.4 % | -10.9 % |
Ford | 1.9 % | 5.1 % | 1.9 % | -62.8 % | -0.1 % |
GM | 2.5 % | 5.1 % | 2.9 % | -51.9 % | -14.4 % |
Honda | 2.3 % | 5.7 % | 2.3 % | -59.1 % | 2.0 % |
Hyundai | 1.2 % | 3.9 % | 1.1 % | -70.1 % | 5.1 % |
Kia | 1.1 % | 6.4 % | 1.3 % | -82.9 % | -15.5 % |
Nissan | 3.0 % | 7.1 % | 3.8 % | -57.1 % | -19.5 % |
Stellantis | 5.1 % | 6.4 % | 4.4 % | -19.7 % | 15.5 % |
Subaru | 1.3 % | 3.6 % | 1.4 % | -64.3 % | -9.0 % |
Toyota | 1.7 % | 4.5 % | 2.0 % | -63.3 % | -16.5 % |
Volkswagen Group | 2.6 % | 6.1 % | 2.8 % | -56.9 % | -5.5 % |
Industry | 2.4 % | 5.5 % | 2.5 % | -56.1 % | -2.0 % |
Revenue | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2022 Forecast | Sep 2021 Actual | Aug 2022 Actual | YOY | MOM |
Industry | $51,263,941,149 | $42,807,179,128 | $51,783,670,865 | 19.8 % | -1.0 % |
Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 | Q2 2022 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 85,325 | 82,064 | 84,036 | 4.0 % | 4.0 % | 1.5 % | 1.5 % |
Daimler | 81,356 | 63,747 | 88,410 | 27.6 % | 27.6 % | -8.0 % | -8.0 % |
Ford | 469,984 | 397,644 | 480,558 | 18.2 % | 18.2 % | -2.2 % | -2.2 % |
GM | 558,835 | 443,150 | 578,507 | 26.1 % | 26.1 % | -3.4 % | -3.4 % |
Honda | 223,731 | 345,914 | 239,789 | -35.3 % | -35.3 % | -6.7 % | -6.7 % |
Hyundai | 201,838 | 193,522 | 198,136 | 4.3 % | 4.3 % | 1.9 % | 1.9 % |
Kia | 192,290 | 177,014 | 182,146 | 8.6 % | 8.6 % | 5.6 % | 5.6 % |
Nissan | 152,754 | 198,955 | 183,171 | -23.2 % | -23.2 % | -16.6 % | -16.6 % |
Stellantis | 391,081 | 413,311 | 408,040 | -5.4 % | -5.4 % | -4.2 % | -4.2 % |
Subaru | 141,365 | 141,552 | 131,449 | -0.1 % | -0.1 % | 7.5 % | 7.5 % |
Tesla | 128,609 | 75,631 | 138,895 | 70.0 % | 70.0 % | -7.4 % | -7.4 % |
Toyota | 518,159 | 565,880 | 531,105 | -8.4 % | -8.4 % | -2.4 % | -2.4 % |
Volkswagen Group | 159,419 | 136,650 | 142,893 | 16.7 % | 16.7 % | 11.6 % | 11.6 % |
Industry | 3,437,982 | 3,394,029 | 3,518,915 | 1.3 % | 1.3 % | -2.3 % | -2.3 % |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 | Q2 2022 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 77,759 | 101,575 | 78,805 | -23.4 % | -23.4 % | -1.3 % | -1.3 % |
Daimler | 74,811 | 75,132 | 64,924 | -0.4 % | -0.4 % | 15.2 % | 15.2 % |
Ford | 334,938 | 366,931 | 325,514 | -8.7 % | -8.7 % | 2.9 % | 2.9 % |
GM | 465,386 | 599,229 | 403,778 | -22.3 % | -22.3 % | 15.3 % | 15.3 % |
Honda | 218,036 | 470,440 | 258,883 | -53.7 % | -53.7 % | -15.8 % | -15.8 % |
Hyundai | 197,081 | 228,474 | 169,737 | -13.7 % | -13.7 % | 16.1 % | 16.1 % |
Kia | 186,369 | 200,746 | 137,801 | -7.2 % | -7.2 % | 35.2 % | 35.2 % |
Nissan | 131,795 | 235,625 | 164,290 | -44.1 % | -44.1 % | -19.8 % | -19.8 % |
Stellantis | 303,355 | 432,724 | 331,777 | -29.9 % | -29.9 % | -8.6 % | -8.6 % |
Subaru | 138,518 | 157,208 | 128,244 | -11.9 % | -11.9 % | 8.0 % | 8.0 % |
Tesla | 110,413 | 67,602 | 126,601 | 63.3 % | 63.3 % | -12.8 % | -12.8 % |
Toyota | 472,465 | 601,027 | 459,059 | -21.4 % | -21.4 % | 2.9 % | 2.9 % |
Volkswagen Group | 144,780 | 189,750 | 109,827 | -23.7 % | -23.7 % | 31.8 % | 31.8 % |
Industry | 2,981,895 | 3,907,705 | 2,894,256 | -23.7 % | -23.7 % | 3.0 % | 3.0 % |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 | Q2 2022 |
BMW | 2.5 % | 2.4 % | 2.4 % |
Daimler | 2.4 % | 1.9 % | 2.5 % |
Ford | 13.7 % | 11.7 % | 13.7 % |
GM | 16.3 % | 13.1 % | 16.4 % |
Honda | 6.5 % | 10.2 % | 6.8 % |
Hyundai | 5.9 % | 5.7 % | 5.6 % |
Kia | 5.6 % | 5.2 % | 5.2 % |
Nissan | 4.4 % | 5.9 % | 5.2 % |
Stellantis | 11.4 % | 12.2 % | 11.6 % |
Subaru | 4.1 % | 4.2 % | 3.7 % |
Tesla | 3.7 % | 2.2 % | 3.9 % |
Toyota | 15.1 % | 16.7 % | 15.1 % |
Volkswagen Group | 4.6 % | 4.0 % | 4.1 % |
96.1 % | 95.3 % | 96.3 % |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 | Q2 2022 |
BMW | 2.6 % | 2.6 % | 2.7 % |
Daimler | 2.5 % | 1.9 % | 2.2 % |
Ford | 11.2 % | 9.4 % | 11.2 % |
GM | 15.6 % | 15.3 % | 14.0 % |
Honda | 7.3 % | 12.0 % | 8.9 % |
Hyundai | 6.6 % | 5.8 % | 5.9 % |
Kia | 6.3 % | 5.1 % | 4.8 % |
Nissan | 4.4 % | 6.0 % | 5.7 % |
Stellantis | 10.2 % | 11.1 % | 11.5 % |
Subaru | 4.6 % | 4.0 % | 4.4 % |
Tesla | 3.7 % | 1.7 % | 4.4 % |
Toyota | 15.8 % | 15.4 % | 15.9 % |
Volkswagen Group | 4.9 % | 4.9 % | 3.8 % |
95.8 % | 95.4 % | 95.3 % |
ATP | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 | Q2 2022 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $66,984 | $60,360 | $65,923 | 11.0 % | 1.6 % | |
Daimler | $67,723 | $67,918 | $65,788 | -0.3 % | 2.9 % | |
Ford | $52,878 | $50,724 | $50,843 | 4.2 % | 4.0 % | |
GM | $51,220 | $49,290 | $50,597 | 3.9 % | 1.2 % | |
Honda | $38,593 | $33,923 | $37,315 | 13.8 % | 3.4 % | |
Hyundai | $36,613 | $34,461 | $37,378 | 6.2 % | -2.0 % | |
Kia | $34,844 | $30,979 | $35,168 | 12.5 % | -0.9 % | |
Nissan | $36,334 | $33,315 | $36,023 | 9.1 % | 0.9 % | |
Stellantis | $54,691 | $49,396 | $53,736 | 10.7 % | 1.8 % | |
Subaru | $34,795 | $33,611 | $35,323 | 3.5 % | -1.5 % | |
Toyota | $40,900 | $38,313 | $39,925 | 6.8 % | 2.4 % | |
Volkswagen Group | $45,198 | $42,202 | $46,644 | 7.1 % | -3.1 % | |
Industry | $45,137 | $41,284 | $44,665 | 9.3 % | 1.1 % | |
$3,853 | $472 |
Incentives | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 | Q2 2022 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $1,153 | $4,066 | $1,207 | -71.7 % | -4.5 % | |
Daimler | $1,337 | $3,484 | $1,298 | -61.6 % | 3.0 % | |
Ford | $1,012 | $2,475 | $1,191 | -59.1 % | -15.0 % | |
GM | $1,455 | $3,125 | $1,754 | -53.5 % | -17.1 % | |
Honda | $819 | $2,059 | $816 | -60.2 % | 0.4 % | |
Hyundai | $444 | $1,576 | $605 | -71.8 % | -26.6 % | |
Kia | $475 | $2,338 | $635 | -79.7 % | -25.2 % | |
Nissan | $1,227 | $2,366 | $1,448 | -48.2 % | -15.3 % | |
Stellantis | $2,378 | $3,022 | $1,905 | -21.3 % | 24.8 % | |
Subaru | $574 | $1,293 | $746 | -55.6 % | -23.0 % | |
Toyota | $749 | $1,941 | $794 | -61.4 % | -5.7 % | |
Volkswagen Group | $1,177 | $2,793 | $1,185 | -57.9 % | -0.6 % | |
Industry | $1,101 | $2,469 | $1,205 | -55.4 % | -8.6 % | |
-$1,368 | -$103 |
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
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SOURCE TrueCar.com