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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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Rebuilding the Rams took less than one season.
Sean McVay has Los Angeles in the mix for an NFC wild-card spot in a season that began with low expectations for the Rams (7-7).
They’ll kick off Week 16 hosting the New Orleans Saints (7-7) in a game with major playoff implications for both teams.
The Saints are battling Tampa Bay (7-7) for first place in the NFC South.
A healthy Matthew Stafford has played like the guy who led the Rams to a Super Bowl title. He’s thrown 13 touchdown passes and only two interceptions over the past five games while the Rams have won four of those.
Derek Carr is coming off his best game with the Saints, who’ve won two in a row.
The Rams are 4 1/2-point favorites, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. They are 17-4-1 against the spread in their past 22 games played in December.
Pro Picks expects them to improve that mark.
RAMS, 23-16
Line: Bills minus 12 1/2
The Bills (8-6) are back in playoff contention and even have a shot at the AFC East after beating Kansas City and dominating Dallas. The Chargers (5-9) play their first game under interim coach Giff Smith after a lopsided loss got Brandon Staley fired.
BEST BET: BILLS, 34-13
Line: Buccaneers minus 1 1/2
Baker Mayfield had a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field and the Buccaneers (7-7) have won three in a row to move into first place in the NFC South. They have an even bigger game next week against New Orleans. The Jaguars (8-6) have lost three in a row to lose their grip on first place in the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence is in concussion protocol. The Jaguars, who are 9-1 against the spread in their past 10 road games, need Lawrence to snap a losing streak.
UPSET SPECIAL: JAGUARS, 24-23
Line: Bengals minus 1 1/2
Jake Browning has led the Bengals (8-6) to three straight wins and a spot in the wild-card race since losing his first start to Pittsburgh. The Steelers (7-7) have lost three in a row since that 16-10 win in Cincinnati. Steelers QB Kenny Pickett returned to practice this week but Mason Rudolph is expected to start. The Steelers are 20-6-4 in their past 30 games as a home underdog.
BENGALS, 23-16
Line: Falcons minus 1 1/2
The Colts (8-6) have won five of six to position themselves for a wild-card spot. They’ve scored at least 27 points in six of their past eight games. Two straight losses have knocked the Falcons (6-8) out of first place in the NFC South and now they’re benching QB Desmond Ridder and going back to Taylor Heinicke.
FALCONS, 26-24
Line: Packers minus 4 1/2
The Packers (6-8) are reeling after two straight losses. They must win to climb back into the wild-card race. The Panthers (2-12) aim to ruin another team’s playoff hopes after beating Atlanta.
PACKERS, 24-16
Line: Browns minus 2 1/2
Joe Flacco has helped the injury-depleted Browns (9-5) stay in contention for a division title while leading the AFC wild-card race. Cleveland has allowed more points on the road than any team this season and fewest at home. The Texans (8-6) are in a three-way tie for first place and again may have to rely on backup QB Case Keenum because C.J. Stroud was still in concussion protocol on Wednesday.
BROWNS, 23-21
Line: Lions minus 3
The Lions (10-4) will clinch the NFC North with a win. They’re averaging 33 points per game indoors this season. QB Nick Mullens makes his second start for the Vikings (7-7) as they compete for a wild-card spot.
LIONS, 30-26
Line: Jets minus 3
This is the worst matchup of the week. The Commanders (4-10) have lost five in a row. The Jets (5-9) have lost six of seven and will have to wait until next season for Aaron Rodgers to return.
COMMANDERS, 17-13
Line: Seahawks minus 2 1/2
Drew Lock led the Seahawks (7-7) on an improbable game-wining drive against Philadelphia on Monday night and back into the wild-card race. The Titans (5-9) are much improved with Will Levis at quarterback.
TITANS, 23-20
Line: Bears minus 4 1/2
The Bears (5-9) have won three of five with two one-score losses. They’ve been more competitive since Justin Fields returned on Nov. 19. The Cardinals (3-11) still have an outside shot at the No. 1 overall pick.
BEARS, 22-19
Line: Dolphins minus 1 1/2
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins (10-4) are still seeking their first win against a team with a winning record. The Cowboys (10-4) are coming off a lopsided loss at Buffalo, but still have a shot at winning the NFC East. Dallas is 12-1 against the spread after a loss since 2021.
COWBOYS, 30-27
Line: Broncos minus 6 1/2
The Patriots (3-11) can’t even cover the spread, going 3-14-1 against the line over their past 18 games. Russell Wilson and the Broncos (7-7) can’t afford a slip-up as they compete for a wild-card berth.
BRONCOS, 20-12
Line: Chiefs minus 10
The Chiefs (9-5) have averaged 35.5 points against the Raiders (6-8) in 11 games with Patrick Mahomes. After putting 63 points up against the Chargers, Las Vegas faces a much tougher defense.
CHIEFS, 27-16
Line: Eagles minus 11 1/2
The Eagles (10-4) have lost three straight games, they’re pointing fingers and their fan base is in panic mode. Here comes Tommy DeVito and the Giants (5-9) to provide relief.
EAGLES, 34-17
Line: 49ers minus 5 1/2
A potential Super Bowl preview featuring the NFL’s two No. 1 seeds. The 49ers (11-3) have won six in a row and have a pair of MVP candidates in Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey. Lamar Jackson could bolster his chances with an impressive performance in this prime-time matchup. The Ravens (11-3) are 19-3-1 against the spread in their past 23 games as an underdog.
49ERS, 26-23
Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against spread: 8-7-1
Overall: Straight up: 139-85. Against spread: 117-98-8.
Best Bet: Straight up: 9-6. Against spread: 6-8-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 8-7. Against spread: 10-5.
Thursday: Straight up: 11-6. Against spread: 12-4-1.
Monday: Straight up: 8-10. Against spread: 12-5-1.
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